Here are two charts for an interesting comparison. The first one is the price of oil (WTI) for the past five years.
Chart found at oil-price.net.
The second chart is crude oil production in the state of Texas from January 1981 through May 2013. But focus on the last few years. Now that's a hockey stick!
The chart and supporting data were found at eia.gov.
Now granted, unrest in the middle East often tilts oil prices upward. Apparently it happens in spite of all this talk about American energy independence. However, unless the laws of supply and demand have been repealed, the supply side of the equation certainly points to lower oil prices.