Some sobering thoughts from Avik Roy in an article at Forbes.com. He suggests that by the time Republicans control the White House and enough of the House and Senate to repeal Obamacare, it might be too late. He's not the first to say this -- that was one of the points Ted Cruz made around the time of his filibuster.
The theory is that many of those who now oppose Obamacare may come to like their new insurance policies. Mr. Roy speculates that there may be 24 million people covered by Obamacare either through the exchanges or through Medicaid by 2017.
So on the "Keep it" side of the issue will be those 24 million bolstered by the insurance and pharmaceutical companies that helped craft the bill. On the "dump it" side will be those who will be paying a higher premium. It isn't certain which side would prevail. And so far, Republicans have not come up with an alternative that is agreeable to most of them.
Of course, Republicans have to win some elections in the meantime. Mr. Roy again:
It’s hard to imagine a Republican winning the 2016 GOP primary by stepping back from the party’s insistence on repealing Obamacare. But it’s also doubtful that a Republican can win the 2016 general election by throwing 24 million Americans off of their health plans. And therein lies the rub.
Factor in also the amazing ability of the Community Organizer in Chief to pull voters out of the woodwork, and it's easy to be pessimistic.