Anyone who watches TV weather men/women describe the regions weather will probably stay with it long enough to look at their chart of temperatures and precipitation forecasts for the next week or ten days. If they kept a record, they would likely find that those precipitation forecasts on the far end of the range are the least accurate. At least it seems that way out here in the Western side of Texas.
Eric Niiler at Discovery.com basically confirms that in How Far Ahead Can We Predict the Weather? He says this:
One of the country’s leading commercial forecasters, AccuWeather, said earlier this month that it could predict the weather conditions and temperature three months ahead of time. It’s a bold claim that has been refuted by some meteorologists who say such a 90-day forecast will only be as good as historical averages and not much use to someone planning a hike or outdoor wedding this summer.
That’s because the Earth’s atmosphere is a chaotic system that doesn’t follow an easily predictable path, according to Keith Seitter, executive director of the American Meteorological Society in Boston.
The good news is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has upgraded its supercomputers to give them more capability. More from Niiler:
In simpler terms, it means that the faster, bigger computers will allow the agency’s scientists to:
-Better predict the amount, timing and type of precipitation in both winter storms and thunderstorms
-Create “water forecasts” and more accurately predict drought and floods
-Connect the air, ocean and waves to track eight hurricanes at once
These supercomputers are the brains behind the weather forecasts you see on TV each night or your smartphone when you wake up.
Interesting article with bonus points for not carving out an exception for global warming predictions.