A successful negotiation would result in your giving up the least to get what you want. And one of the necessary factors is determining how badly the other party wants what you have but concealing how badly you want what they have. So we get phrases like, "holding your cards close to the vest" and "poker face" -- terms from gambling applied to everyday negotiations.
Someone who is easy to read is likely to be an easy mark. Thus when President Obama makes no secret of what he wants -- normalized relations with Cuba, a deal with Iran that makes him look good -- he is weak on tactics.
Take Cuba. Obama wants normalized relations and announces that he's going to normalize relations. So what does Raul Castro do? He starts making demands. Specifically:
SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) — Cuban President Raul Castro demanded on Wednesday that the United States return the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, lift the half-century trade embargo on Cuba and compensate his country for damages before the two nations re-establish normal relations.
Maybe President Cruz will tell the Castro brothers to go jump in a lagoon.
Meanwhile, Iran wants relaxed sanctions. The West wants restrictions strong enough to block any production of a nuclear weapon. President Obama wants a deal with Iran, and his poker face suggests that making a deal is more important than what's in the deal.
The rulers of Iran, for their part, are likely to give him a deal he can boast about, but there will be enough leeway for them to continue pursuit of the nuclear bomb.
Obama is hoping to repeat with Iran the success he had with Cuba. The Iranians are hoping the same thing.
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