All the noise about Donald Trump's threat to run for president as a third party candidate caused Bill Pascoe to reflect on recent history of 3rd party runs. The conventional wisdom told us that if Ross Perot had not run for president in 1992 on a third party ticket then George H. W. Bush would have won.
However, Mr. Pascoe disagrees. See The Bushioisie Is Wrong: Ross Perot Didn’t ‘Cost’ G.H.W. Bush the White House in 1992.
He crunched the pre-election polling results and demonstrates that Bill Clinton led the whole time, but his lead started shrinking when Perot entered the race. Bush's poll numbers stayed about the same. Pascoe comes to this:
In other words, to the extent voters left Bush and Clinton for Perot, those who left Clinton for Perot outnumbered those who left Bush for Perot by more than 4-to-1.
Interesting theory, and he could be right. But this might have limited application to a Trump independent candidacy. Hillary will get about 40% of the vote without even getting out of bed. If there's an establishment type Republican candidate, he'll have the most to lose.
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