[Update and correction. A comment left by Joe Hathaway informs us that the city's news release contained some incorrect numbers in the percent change column. The table originally shown at this post has been changed by adding a new column to the right showing the correct percentage change. Most notable error was the Aggravated Assault percentage change.]
Last month the City of Midland released crime stats for 2008 including the 2007 stats for comparison, as follows:
2008 Crime stats:
Crime |
2007 |
2008 |
percent |
corrected pct |
Murder + manslaughter |
7 |
6 |
-14% |
-14.3% |
Sexual assault |
57 |
64 |
+10.3 |
+12.3 |
Robbery |
76 |
94 |
+23.7% |
+23.7% |
Aggravated Assault |
206 |
255 |
+12.3% |
+23.8% |
Burglary |
835 |
836 |
+0.1% |
+0.1% |
Theft |
2630 |
2492 |
-5.2 % |
-5.2 % |
Auto Theft |
208 |
158 |
-24% |
-24.0% |
Total |
4019 |
3905 |
-3% |
-2.8% |
The biggest increase between '07 and '08 was in the Robbery category. Catching the people who committed the 2008 crimes might go a long way toward reducing the number for 2009, but other than that, there's probably little a police department can do to bring the future number down. With the local economy going into a downturn increased individual diligence in 2009 is probably in order.
The biggest decrease was Auto Theft, perhaps due to the efforts of the prevention programs of the auto theft teams. Or it might have been a result of the increasingly sophisticated auto locking systems in new cars helping to keep thieves from driving off in the family vehicle.
Burglary probably includes residential, business and vehicular burglary. And the burglary rate held steady with an increase of only one resulting in a total of 836 in 2008. So for this town of roughly 100,000 residents the probability of having been burglarized comes in at a little less than one in a hundred.
Catching the ones who have already committed a burglary might reduce the future number. But how does a police department do that? In addition to old fashioned police work, there's the possibility that DNA evidence might be useful in solving burglary cases.
A study published in the National Institute of Justice Journal last year titled DNA Solves Property Crimes (But Are We Ready for That?) reports the results of experiments in which DNA samples were collected at property crime scene, and here are some key portions from that report:
The study revealed that, when DNA was added to traditional property crime investigations:
* More than twice as many suspects were identified.
* Twice as many suspects were arrested.
* More than twice as many cases were accepted for prosecution.
The DNA Field Experiment also found that suspects were five times as likely to be identified through DNA evidence than through fingerprints; blood evidence was more effective in solving property crimes than other biological evidence, particularly evidence from items that were handled or touched by the suspect; and evidence collected by forensic technicians was no more likely to result in a suspect being identified than evidence collected by patrol officers.
Another significant finding of the unprecedented experiment — conducted in Orange County, Calif.; Los Angeles; Denver; Phoenix; and Topeka, Kan. — was that suspects identified by DNA had at least twice as many prior felony arrests and convictions as those identified through traditional burglary investigation.
The emphasis in that last sentence is mine and implies a future problem. The reason the suspects identified by DNA had twice as many prior felony arrests could be because they eventually learned from their past mistakes and adapted to avoid leaving fingerprints or other evidence typically collected in traditional investigations. So if the collection of DNA evidence becomes common practice in property crimes then the criminals will eventually adapt their behavior to that, too.
But it's expensive, and for a moderate sized community it probably should be reserved for situations involving serial burglars or high dollar losses. The NIJ report suggests the problem would be that the laboratories would be overwhelmed which would require spending money on the building of new labs. In any event, it's going to cost.
How about something cheap and easy? Study after study has shown that the "broken window theory" works. Fix the broken windows, pick up the trash, and crime rates go down. See Can the can and Breakthrough on 'broken windows'.
Every city probably has a day set aside as part of the Great American Cleanup, and locally Keep Midland Beautiful has one on April 4, 2009. So there's an opportunity for all citizens to help reduce crime the easy way by cleaning up the streets in high crime areas. Can't locate a high crime area? Many cities put crime maps online; here's Midland's crime map.
The report shows that DNA collection could help capture burglars if taxpayers are willing to foot the bill. Let's apply "broken windows theory" first. Pick up trash -- toss out crooks.